• Super Admin
• 08 Mar, 2026

ABUJA - When President Bola Ahmed Tinu­bu recently declared that Nigeria was "out of the woods," his state­ment was met with a mix of ap­plause, skepticism, and cautious optimism. Speaking at the presidential villa, Tinubu hailed the relative stability in the economy, security gains in some regions, and reform initiatives as evidence that Nigeria had begun to emerge from the protracted crises that have hampered governance, de­velopment, and public confidence for decades. But for many Nigerians, especial­ly those grappling with rising living costs, sporadic insecurity, and gover­nance inefficiencies, the president's as­sertion raises pressing questions: Out of which woods is Nigeria emerging, and how far is it truly from the forest of economic, social, and security chal­lenges that continue to loom large? From the onset, the Tinubu administration inherited a com­plex economic landscape. Infla­tion had surged to double-digit levels, foreign reserves were un­der pressure, and unemployment remained stubbornly high. Within the first two years of his presidency, Tinubu launched a series of economic reforms, including revenue mobilization measures, tax reforms, and ef­forts to stabilize the naira. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that while infla­tion remains high, there has been some moderation in food price in­creases in recent months. The Central Bank's interven­tions have helped stabilize the foreign exchange market, with of­ficial rates now significantly less volatile than in previous years. Dr. Evelyn Obaseki, an econ­omist with the Lagos-based Cen­tre for Economic Studies, notes: "There are signs that macroeco­nomic fundamentals are slowly stabilizing. Government revenue collection has improved, and pol­icy consistency in the oil and gas sector has helped restore investor confidence. "But these are early days, and for the average Nigerian, daily realities -- like electricity costs, transportation, and food pric­es -- remain challenging." Indeed, citizens across the country have expressed mixed feelings about economic im­provement. In Abuja, Adeola Akande, a civil servant, says: "The mar­kets seem calmer, and I can plan my monthly budget a bit better than last year. But inflation is still high, and many salaries have not caught up. 'Out of the woods' feels premature from a household perspective." Meanwhile, in Kano State, small business owner, Ibrahim Musa, describes the situation as "manageable but not fully com­fortable." He adds, "Yes, the naira is stable, and goods are moving, but the cost of living is still high, and access to credit is difficult. For many Nigerians, the woods are not behind us; they have merely thinned." Another dimension of Tinubu's statement relates to security. The president points to a decrease in insurgency in­cidents in certain parts of the Northeast and successful oper­ations against banditry and kid­napping in Northcentral Nigeria as evidence of progress. Securi­ty analysts acknowledge some achievements. Dr. Chukwuemeka Uche, a researcher at the Abuja Security Studies Institute, explains: "Mil­itary operations have regained territories in areas that were pre­viously under insurgent control, and there is better coordination among the army, police, and civ­il authorities. But the security landscape remains fragmented, and threats from Boko Haram, ISWAP, and bandit groups per­sist." The arrest of high-profile in­surgents, such as the notorious figure dubbed the 'Boko Haram Grandmother,' has symbolically boosted government credibility. Yet, experts caution against over­generalization. "Security improvements are localized and fragile," Dr. Uche warns. "A claim that Nigeria is fully out of the woods overlooks the ongoing attacks in the North­west and the complex dynamics of communal and criminal vio­lence in other regions." Governors from the affected states have largely welcomed federal efforts but urge sustained attention. Governor Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti State, during a recent National Governors' Forum ses­sion, remarked: "Coordination between state and federal securi­ty agencies is improving, but we must acknowledge the uneven progress. Nigerians expect con­sistent safety across all regions, not just pockets of calm." While macroeconomic stabili­ty and security gains are measur­able, social realities often paint a different picture. Poverty, unem­ployment, and limited access to healthcare and education contin­ue to challenge the government's narrative of recovery. Nigeria's Social Investment Programme, which includes cash transfers, food support, and job creation initiatives, has provided relief to millions. But critics ar­gue that the scale is insufficient. Ms. Amina Yusuf, a social worker in Kaduna, observes: "These programs are helpful, but they cannot offset the every­day pressures on low-income families. The woods are not fully behind us when people are strug­gling to afford school fees, med­ical care, and basic food items." Health indicators are similar­ly mixed. The pandemic after­math and intermittent strikes by health workers have strained service delivery. Dr. Ifeoma Nwankwo, a pub­lic health specialist, notes: "Life expectancy, maternal and child health indicators are improving slowly, but the system remains underfunded. Nigerians are re­silient, but resilience is not a sub­stitute for comprehensive health infrastructure." Governance reforms repre­sent another area where Tinu­bu's claim can be tested. The ad­ministration has pushed forward policies to digitize government services, clamp down on graft, and enhance transparency in public procurement. The introduction of digital platforms for tax payments and government transactions has been particularly noted for im­proving efficiency. Transparency International's Nigeria chapter reports modest improvements in perceived government integrity, and several high-profile anti-cor­ruption operations have demon­strated political will. Yet, many experts emphasize that institutional reforms take time to consolidate. "It is one thing to launch initiatives and another to embed them in a cul­ture of accountability," says Prof. Olufemi Adegboye, a governance expert at the University of Lagos. Citizens, too, remain cautious­ly optimistic. In Ibadan, retired teacher Segun Adebayo remarks: "Yes, corruption cases are being pursued more openly, and some services are easier to access. But Nigerians will judge whether we are truly out of the woods when reforms impact their daily lives in lasting ways -- consistent pow­er supply, better roads, reliable health services, and security in their neighborhoods." Nigeria's federal structure adds another layer of complexi­ty. Regional variations mean that progress in Lagos or Abuja may not reflect realities in Zamfara or Benue. Governors from states that have implemented fiscal reforms, improved security strategies, or boosted industrial activity re­port positive trends. But leaders from resource-constrained or conflict-affected states warn that national averages can mask local­ized struggles. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State commented recently: "We are witnessing improve­ments in governance in many states, but we cannot ignore re­gions where insecurity, unem­ployment, and poverty remain stubborn. National progress must be inclusive." Globally, Nigeria's image has been a mix of cautious optimism and skepticism. International in­vestors have responded positively to stable foreign exchange rates, improved fiscal discipline, and enhanced anti-corruption mea­sures. Moody's and Fitch Ratings have maintained relatively sta­ble outlooks for the country, cit­ing government reforms as a key factor. However, analysts warn that geopolitical risks, internal unrest, and global economic shocks could undermine these gains. "Investor confidence is real, but it is fragile," says Dr. Adeola Omotayo, a finance expert. "If local realities -- like persistent insecurity, weak judicial enforce­ment, and infrastructure defi­cits -- are not addressed, Nigeria could slip back into instability." On the streets, Nigerians express a nuanced view. Many acknowledge improvements in governance and macroeconomic management but remain skepti­cal about the claim that the na­tion is out of the woods. In Lagos, market trader Hali­ma Abubakar states: "The woods may be behind the government's office, but for ordinary people, the trees are still everywhere. Prices are high, transport is difficult, and security is uncertain." Youth unemployment and underemployment further com­plicate the picture. Many young Nigerians are seeking opportuni­ties abroad or in informal sectors, reflecting a disconnect between macroeconomic stability and human development outcomes. Civil society groups echo these concerns. Chinedu Nwokolo of the Policy and Cit­izens Alliance argues: "Tinu­bu's optimism is welcome, but it must be grounded in tangible improvement across all sectors and regions. Otherwise, public trust risks eroding." Assessing whether Nigeria is truly out of the woods requires a nuanced view. The country has indeed seen progress in econom­ic management, security opera­tions, and governance reforms. There are measurable im­provements in investor con­fidence, reduced currency volatility, and targeted social interventions. Yet, persistent poverty, regional disparities, in­security, infrastructural deficits, and social challenges indicate that the woods have not been fully left behind. For many Nigerians, daily life remains fraught with challenges that macroeconomic indicators may not fully capture. Tinubu's declaration, therefore, can be un­derstood as both aspirational and symbolic -- an attempt to boost confidence domestically and in­ternationally. Its realism, howev­er, is contingent on the continued implementation of policies that tangibly improve the welfare of citizens, strengthen institutional resilience, and sustain security gains across all regions. Source: https://independent.ng/nigerias-economy-in-or-out-of-the-woods/