• Super Admin
• 08 Mar, 2026

LAGOS - Experts in various fields have expressed worry over the likely spike in cost of living in Ni­geria due to the escalation of the Middle East war and called on the Federal Government to quickly put in place safeguards to cushion the impact of the global crisis on Nigerians. Chief Martin Onovo, a petro­leum engineer and a player in the nation's Oil & Gas industry, in a chat with Sunday Independent, wondered if stakeholders' recom­mendations on the crisis would be evaluated and if the President Bola Tinubu regime is interested in the security and welfare of cit­izens. Onovo, the 2015 presidential candidate of the National Con­science Party (NCP) and currently the Head, Policy Positions, Move­ment for Fundamental Change (MFC), continued: "The situation in the Middle-East, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, has constrained global oil supply from the Middle-East. "That would have been a bigger opportunity for Nigeria to increase supply and national revenue. Un­fortunately, Nigerian production is constrained due to corruption and irresponsible regimes. Nigeria will still benefit a bit from increases in crude oil price. "Any increase in the cost of liv­ing can easily be mitigated using our position as a major oil exporter. The impact will be majorly from imports." Chief Emeka Charles Kalu, a power engineer and President, ECK Foundation, stated: "The escalating tensions in the Middle East, a major global oil-producing region, pose significant risks to en­ergy prices and supply chains. For Nigeria, this could translate into higher fuel costs, transportation expenses, and overall inflation. "I recommend that the Federal Government strengthen local refin­ing capacity to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, aggressively support domestic ag­riculture to cushion food inflation, and temporarily expand targeted social protection for vulnerable households. "The FG should also stabilise the naira through prudent fiscal and monetary coordina­tion while improving strate­gic petroleum reserves. Clear communication and market transparency will be critical to prevent panic pricing and protect Nigerians from avoid­able hardship." Barrister Olalekan Festus Ojo, a human rights lawyer, maintained that the escalat­ing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly those affect­ing major energy corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, have already triggered volatil­ity in global energy markets. Barrister Ojo, Managing Partner, Platinum & Taylor Hill LP, a leading law firm in Nigeria, stated: "Oil prices have surged sharply due to supply disruptions and geo­political risks, with analysts warning that sustained insta­bility could push crude prices toward $90-$100 per barrel. "For Nigeria, the impli­cations are paradoxical. On the one hand, higher oil pric­es could boost government revenues because crude oil remains Nigeria's dominant export and a major source of fiscal income. "On the other hand, Nige­ria still relies significantly on imported refined petroleum products, meaning global price shocks translate almost immediately into higher do­mestic fuel prices, which then cascade into inflation through transportation, food distri­bution, and manufacturing costs. "Already, there are indica­tions that rising global crude prices have begun pushing up local fuel and cooking gas prices, with petrol prices in some locations approaching ₦1,000 per litre and diesel and LPG also recording sharp in­creases. "In my view, the Federal Government must adopt a multi-layered strategy to mit­igate the impact on the Nige­rian populace. "First, Nigeria must prior­itise domestic refining capac­ity. Second, the government should establish strategic petroleum reserves. "Third, there must be tar­geted social protection for vulnerable citizens. Fourth, Nigeria must accelerate eco­nomic diversification. "Fifth, stabilising the naira and improving logistics effi­ciency is essential. Finally, Nigeria must invest aggres­sively in alternative energy and power infrastructure. "In conclusion, the Middle East crisis once again exposes the structural vulnerabilities of Nigeria's energy and eco­nomic systems. "The Federal Government must move beyond short-term reactions and imple­ment long-term reforms that enhance domestic refining, diversify the economy, and protect citizens from global shocks. "Only through such pro­active policies can Nigeria transform external crises into opportunities for economic resilience rather than sourc­es of hardship." Barrister Kenneth Udeze, National Chairman, Action Alliance in his response, stat­ed, "Given the situation, the FG could consider: Boosting local energy production (so­lar, hydro) to reduce import reliance and supporting lo­cal farmers to increase food supply. "The Federal Government should implement targeted subsidies or cash transfers for vulnerable groups, diversify the economy to reduce import dependence and encourage al­ternative energy sources like LNG for vehicles. "These steps could help mitigate the impact of global energy price shocks on Ni­geria's economy and cost of living." Hon. John Kome, a People's Democratic Party (PDP) and a 2023 House of Assembly can­didate in Lagos, stated: "Mr President and his family and cronies should stop misusing our lean resources for secret campaigns and political fri­volities. "Those managing Nige­ria's resources should fear God and abandon reckless spending of our national wealth, but rather take ad­vantage of the hostility on the Middle East to manage Nige­ria's oil and gas profitably and maximise every moment of the four weeks, most probably. "Instead of focusing on 2027 politics, the All Progres­sives Congress (APC) led government should be eco­nomically and intellectually positioned to make money from the global moment. "There may be a spike in the cost of living, global trade, international alliance and alignment with nations of powerful economic growth and potentials. "Nigeria's managers should not sit in beer parlours or have fun here and there, but rather put their brains to task for our economic recov­ery and security stability." Prof. John Ebhomien, an economist and finance expert, described the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East as worrisome, as there are fears of potential World War 111. Ebhomien, an APC chief­tain, stressed: "However, the Federal Government can con­sider several measures to mit­igate the impact of the Middle East conflict on Nigeria's cost of living: "Strengthen Domestic Refining Capacity: Urgently revamp government-owned refineries and support local refineries like Dangote Re­finery with steady crude oil supply in naira to reduce de­pendence on imported petro­leum products. "Naira-for-Crude Policy: Expand and strengthen the Naira-for-Crude policy to re­duce pressure on foreign ex­change and stabilize domestic fuel pricing. "Subsidise Essential Goods: Implement targeted subsidy programmes for vulnerable citizens, such as cash transfers or subsidies on essential goods like food and transportation. "Promote Local Produc­tion: Encourage domestic production of essential goods to reduce reliance on imports and mitigate currency deval­uation effects. "Social Safety Nets: En­hance social safety nets, in­cluding cash transfers, food aid, and subsidies for essen­tial goods, to cushion the impact on vulnerable popu­lations. "Currency Stabilisation: Implement measures to sta­bilise the naira value, such as intervening in the foreign exchange market to manage volatility. "Diversify Economy: Invest oil revenue in real sectors, infrastructure de­velopment, and diversify the economy away from oil de­pendence. "Finally, the Federal Gov­ernment should urgently put in place appropriate mecha­nisms to revamp our military architecture to meet the ex­pectations of Nigerians. "We live in perilous and unpredictable times. There­fore, the Federal Government should procure serviceable and sophisticated military warfare equipment compa­rable to what is obtained in America, China and other advanced countries. In addi­tion, secure our borders. This is the way to go." Bishop Herbert Ekechuk­wu, an economist and church leader, stated: "The Middle East challenge will definitely snowball into an energy crisis in Nigeria. "The Federal Government should be proactive in solving the resultant enemy crisis not to inflict more hardship on the already suffering masses. "It may result in an in­crease in fuel prices and the subsequent spiral inflation that follows. Therefore gov­ernment may adopt the fol­lowing measures: "Release oil from the stra­tegic reserves to stabilise fuel prices and meet domestic de­mand. "Promotion of alternative energy and the adoption of renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. "Implement price control and monitor markets to pre­vent price hike and hoarding. "Diversifying investment is more than overdue. Invest in sectors like technology, manufacturing and agricul­ture to reduce reliance on oil export. "Government should sup­port local businesses, boost agricultural production and provide support to local farm­ers to reduce oil reliance on imported food. "These measures can help cushion the impact of the cri­sis on Nigerians and promote economic resilience." Apostle Dr Bolaji Akinyemi, Convener, Ap­ostolic Round Table (ART), stated: "Nigeria must treat the Middle East crisis as both an economic and ideological warning. "First, the Federal Gov­ernment should immediately strengthen domestic energy resilience by accelerating local refining, stabilising the naira, and expanding target­ed social protection to cush­ion citizens against a global oil-price shock triggered by tensions involving Iran and its regional rivals. "Second, beyond econom­ics, government must pay attention to emerging ideo­logical patterns within the country. "Nigeria's secular consti­tutional order must remain clear and protected, while en­gaging respected institutions such as Sa'ad Abubakar III to ensure religious leadership supports national cohesion, rather than narratives that could reopen debates around a nationwide Sharia state." Barrister Emeka Iheonu, a Lagos lawyer, said: "Since oil accounts for over 85 percent of export earnings and half of the government revenue, the US-Israel-Iran conflict could mean an immediate influx of foreign exchange to Nigeria. "Every increase in crude oil price translates into addi­tional export earnings and fiscal revenues. There will be improved foreign exchange inflows, external reserves will be strengthened. "There will also be in­creased FAAC allocations to all tiers of Government. How­ever, persistent theft and van­dalism make Nigeria's crude oil output fluctuate and this will affect the expected oil boom. On the flip side, most Nigerian families and resi­dents could face harder times. "Since Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream pe­troleum regime, higher glob­al oil prices will likely lead to an immediate rise in the cost of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. "The purchasing power of most Nigerians is quite low. Therefore, sustained increas­es in fuel prices could intensi­fy cost-of-living pressures and deepen poverty levels. "Capital flight and market volatility issues will also affect Nigeria's financial stability. I will advise the Federal Gov­ernment to intensify anti-theft operations in the Niger Delta, accelerate domestic refining capacity to reduce reliance on imported fuel, and deploy targeted social protection measures to shield vulner­able Nigerian families and residents from energy-driven inflation." Tola Oresanwo, Director, Administration and Pro­grammes, Centre for Anti-Cor­ruption and Open Leadership (CACOL), said: "As conflicts in the Middle East, includ­ing US-Israel strikes on Iran continue, Nigeria faces surg­ing fuel costs, petrol nearing N1,000/litre and diesel N1,300 exacerbating inflation and cost-of-living pressures. "To stem this, the Federal Government should: Acceler­ate economic diversification through non-oil exports and agriculture to buffer oil vola­tility. "Implement targeted sub­sidies for essentials like food for low-income households. Boost local refining capacity via Dangote and modular re­fineries to reduce import de­pendence. We have not really enjoyed the benefits of local refining for years now. "Advance renewable ener­gy investments and ensure stable power supply by 2026 to cut energy costs long-term. Strengthen forex reserves and naira stability through tighter monetary policy. "These measures, if exe­cuted swiftly, could mitigate stagflation risks and reduce the negative effects of the Middle East conflicts on the cost of living of the people of Nigeria." Dr Victor Mathew, a hu­man rights promoter, secu­rity expert, and Executive Director, Kingdom Advocacy Network (KAN), said: "This Federal Government that re­moved fuel subsidy without adequate measures cannot shield its citizens from the ex­pected rise in cost of living, if the war in the Middle East escalates. "I do not think the govern­ment can do anything at this time, because, subsidy has been removed. Nigeria is yet to achieve energy security even with the establishment of the Dangote Refinery. "The Dangote refinery has even increased the cost of PMS within a few days of the war. That means if the war persists, we are expecting to see more upward review of the cost of PMS. "Any increase in PMS af­fects cost of transportation and a hike in transport cost affects prices of goods and services. "On the issue of transport cost, the government needs to scale up the penetration of CNG powered mass transit buses. "The government should create an enabling environ­ment for the production of electric vehicles. "The LPG price has already gone up as well as AGO prices which are impacting negative­ly on the cost of production. "Food prices are definite­ly going to go up, if the war escalates further. Then the government will need to open the strategic grain reserves to flood the market with those products to bring down their price of food items. "In summary, it is embar­rassing that an oil producing nation like Nigeria which is not involved directly with the war and is supposed to be ben­efiting from it is exposed to its disadvantages. "This lack of energy secu­rity is very shameful. It would have been worse if there was no Dangote Refinery. Our Government has to be more creative and imaginative in managing our God given en­ergy resources." Source: https://independent.ng/mid-east-war-how-fg-can-save-nigerians-from-fallouts-experts/