• Super Admin
• 08 Mar, 2026

With EU gas storage levels at around 30%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the bloc is entering a critical period for replenishing reserves ahead of the next winter. Although the European Commission states that there is no immediate gas shortage, the Dutch benchmark TTF -- the main pricing reference for natural gas in Europe, used by traders, energy companies and governments to set contract prices -- has risen sharply in recent days, reflecting market concerns about tighter global supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that a war in the Middle East could "collapse the world's economies" by damaging economic growth and increasing energy bills due to an emerging shortage. The Qatari minister also added that even if the conflict were to end immediately, Qatar would need "weeks to months" to normalize deliveries following the shutdown of Ras Laffan -- the liquefied natural gas export complex that was struck by Iranian drones earlier this week. With EU gas storage levels at around 30%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the bloc is entering a critical period for replenishing reserves ahead of the next winter. The situation revives painful memories of the energy shock of 2022, triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but is unfolding against the backdrop of significantly greater diversification and a shift away from Russian pipeline gas. On 4 March, the European Commission convened emergency coordination groups and stated that liquefied natural gas supplies from the United States -- which already account for the majority of imports -- together with Norwegian pipeline gas are, for the time being, maintaining supply stability. European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen also emphasized the importance of increased deliveries from Azerbaijan via the Southern Gas Corridor. Nevertheless, some EU countries are particularly exposed to disruption risks -- either because they are major LNG importers, rely heavily on deliveries from Qatar, or hold unusually low reserves. EU countries with the most to lose In 2025, the European Union imported more than 140 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, according to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. The United States is the EU's largest LNG supplier, providing nearly 58% of the bloc's total liquefied natural gas imports -- a volume that has tripled between 2021 and 2025. The largest LNG importers in the EU are France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium. Among these five countries, Italy and Belgium are under the greatest pressure due to their stronger dependence on Qatari supplies. According to the analytics platform Kpler, Qatar accounted for around 30% of Italy's LNG imports and 8% of Belgium's last year. By contrast, countries such as France and Spain have better access to supplies from Norway as well as from other suppliers. In addition, although Poland is not among the EU's five largest LNG importers, 17% of its gas imports in 2025 came from Qatar, meaning the country faces a similar challenge related to its dependency. Belgium could face the most serious problem in terms of reserve levels. The country's gas storage stands at around 25.5%, below the EU average of 30%, further complicating efforts to replace Qatari volumes. Italy and Poland also have significant exposure to Qatari LNG, although their gas storage levels are relatively higher -- at 47% and 50% respectively. Overall, these countries are likely to be more exposed to price volatility as they compete for alternative cargoes on the global spot market. Baird Langenbrunner, an analyst at Global Energy Monitor, warned that the shutdown of Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG export complex could have a significant impact on the market, noting that there are few immediate substitutes for these volumes. EU countries that anticipated the risk In sharp contrast, other EU countries appear significantly better shielded from the current disruption. Portugal stands out in particular, as it has not received gas from the Middle East since 2020, when its last small shipment from Qatar amounted to just 129,000 cubic meters. According to Portugal's Directorate-General for Energy and Geology, the country's main suppliers in 2025 were Nigeria and the United States -- with supply routes located far from the Strait of Hormuz. The country also maintains exceptionally high gas reserve levels -- above 76%, and experts note that it could relatively easily increase LNG deliveries from the United States if necessary. Spain also benefits from more diversified sources of supply, with reserves standing at around 56%, placing it in a comfortable position. This variation within the bloc demonstrates how national energy strategies introduced after 2022 are already leading to very different levels of vulnerability. Short-term solutions will not resolve long-term dependence Brussels has signaled that it is ready to activate solidarity measures if the situation worsens. Options under discussion include coordinated targets for reducing consumption, accelerated programs for joint LNG procurement, temporary mechanisms to shield against price shocks, and financial instruments to support the most affected member states. The European Commission emphasized that it will continue close daily monitoring together with national governments and is prepared to accelerate state-aid approvals or facilitate the sharing of gas reserves between countries where necessary. Chris Bernkopf, chief executive officer of the Vienna-based company Podero -- a developer of energy flexibility software that works with major European energy companies, including E.ON and TotalEnergies -- voiced the same call made by many experts: for a faster transition to renewable energy sources. "The real problem was not and is not the pricing system; the problem is the gas dependency underlying it," he said. "The solutions are less dramatic but more durable: building more renewable energy supported by storage systems; managing consumption intelligently; and using digital tools to coordinate household devices such as heat pumps and electric vehicles in order to reduce the burden on the power grid." Bernkopf argues that although short-term measures such as price freezes can protect households during a crisis, they do not address structural problems. True energy security and lower prices, he stresses, will come only through expanding renewable energy sources, improving power-grid flexibility and reducing overall dependence on imported fossil fuels. The coming weeks will test both national preparedness and the effectiveness of solidarity within the European Union -- at a moment when geopolitical risks to energy supplies have once again been clearly exposed. | BGNES Source: https://www.bgnes.com/economy/which-eu-countries-are-most-exposed-to-the-risk-of-disruptions-in-liquefied-natural-gas-supplies