• Super Admin
• 07 Mar, 2026

February delivered a strong start to 2026 across Africa's major economies as easing inflation, strengthening currencies, and renewed investor appetite reshaped the continent's macro outlook. Fifteen African central banks held monetary policy meetings in the first two months of the year, with eight opting to cut rates -- signalling growing confidence among policymakers that price pressures are easing across several economies. Inflation has already cooled in countries including Kenya, Zimbabwe, Ghana and Zambia, giving policymakers room to support growth after more than two years of aggressive tightening. Financial markets are responding. Nigeria has emerged as Africa's best-performing equity market so far this year, while several African currencies have strengthened against the dollar and sovereign bond issuance has surged as governments move quickly to lock in cheaper funding. Yet risks remain. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are threatening to disrupt the continent's emerging easing cycle just as inflation begins to moderate. Here are five charts that explain how Africa's biggest markets performed in February. Egypt's private sector recorded the weakest business activity among eight major African economies in February, as rising cost pressures and softer demand pushed the country's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) deeper into contraction territory. Data from S&P Global shows the Arab nation's headline PMI fell to 48.9 in February from 49.8 in January, marking the lowest reading in five months. The figure remained below the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, although still slightly above its long-term average of 48.3. The PMI -- compiled from surveys of about 400 private-sector firms -- is widely viewed as a high-frequency indicator of economic momentum. "The February PMI data pointed to a slowdown in the Egyptian non-oil private sector as activity curtailed and new order volumes weakened," said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite the decline, the survey suggests Egypt's non-oil economy is still experiencing a modest recovery. Across the continent, business conditions improved in several markets. Uganda posted the strongest expansion with a PMI of 54.2, followed by Nigeria, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa. Ghana and Zambia remained in contraction territory, although Ghana's PMI improved to 49.5 from 48.5, signalling gradual stabilisation after months of macroeconomic stress. More African countries maintain single-digit inflation trend Inflation continues to moderate across several African economies, with a growing number of countries returning to single-digit price growth. Among the five countries that released February inflation data, Uganda posted the lowest rate at 2.9 percent, down from 3.2 percent in January. According to the Bank of Uganda, the subdued inflation environment reflects tight monetary policy, policy coordination with fiscal authorities, a relatively stable exchange rate and easing global inflation pressures. Ghana followed with inflation of 3.3 percent, maintaining its single-digit trend since September as record gold prices strengthened the cedi and supported macro stability. Zimbabwe recorded inflation of 3.8 percent, the lowest since September 2018, while Kenya's inflation slowed to a six-month low of 4.3 percent despite concerns over food security following the weakest October-December rains since 1981. Zambia's inflation eased sharply to 7.5 percent, the lowest level since March 2019. But Tunisia's inflation rose to a five month high of 5 percent, up from 4.8 percent in January. The acceleration was mainly driven by stronger price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages. The broader trend reflects a continent-wide disinflation cycle. The World Bank estimates that the number of African economies with single-digit inflation will rise from 27 in 2022 to 37 by 2025. Africa's foreign-exchange markets also showed signs of stabilisation in early 2026. The Zambian kwacha and Nigerian naira emerged as the continent's strongest-performing currencies in the first two months of the year, according to data from African Markets. Out of 17 currencies tracked through February 27, eight appreciated against the dollar. Zambia's kwacha recorded the biggest gain, strengthening 17.7 percent to 18.79 per dollar since the start of the year, supported by firm copper prices and improving macro fundamentals. Nigeria followed with the naira appreciating 6.95 percent to around N1,353.4 per dollar, reflecting stronger foreign exchange inflows and improving investor confidence after sweeping currency reforms. Namibia ranked third with a 3.95 percent gain, followed by South Africa and Uganda. Tanzania and Ghana recorded the largest depreciations, weakening by 3.99 percent and 2.60 percent respectively. "African currencies have gradually strengthened, supported by improved financial conditions, stronger foreign exchange inflows from reforms, higher foreign direct investment and favourable commodity prices," the World Bank said in a recent report. However, the lender warned that sustaining currency stability will depend on prudent fiscal policy and continued structural reforms. Equity markets across Africa have also rallied sharply this year, with Nigeria emerging as the continent's best-performing stock market in 2026 so far. Data from African Markets shows Nigeria's benchmark index has gained 34.4 percent in dollar terms year-to-date as of February 20, making it the top performer among 17 African bourses tracked. The All-Share Index stood at 194,989.8 points, with market capitalisation reaching N125.2 trillion ($92.9 billion). The surge marks a sharp turnaround for the West African market, which ranked fourth on the continent last year, and reflects renewed foreign investor appetite, a stronger naira and improving macro stability. Tanzania ranked second, with its DSE index rising 33.4 percent, supported by strong economic growth and rising investor participation. Zimbabwe placed third with a 31.8 percent gain, reflecting currency stabilisation under the ZiG framework and easing inflation. Ghana ranked fourth, with its composite index advancing 28.6 percent amid improving macro conditions following debt restructuring. Egypt completed the top five, with the EGX 30 rising 21.7 percent on the back of stronger private investment and foreign inflows. In local currency terms, Tanzania remains the continent's best performer, with its market up 40.65 percent year-to-date. Monetary policy is also beginning to turn across Africa after years of aggressive tightening. Of the 15 central banks that held monetary policy meetings in the first two months of the year, eight cut interest rates -- including Kenya, Egypt, Angola, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Notably, five of the countries easing policy rank among Africa's 10 largest economies, highlighting the breadth of the shift. Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo delivered the largest cuts. Ghana reduced its benchmark rate by 250 basis points to 15.5 percent, the lowest level since February 2022, while Congo cut rates to 15 percent from 17.5 percent. Egypt and Angola followed with 100-basis-point reductions, while Zambia trimmed rates by 75 basis points to 13.5 percent. Kenya, Nigeria and Mozambique implemented more modest 25-basis-point cuts, signalling cautious optimism that inflation risks remain contained. Not all central banks have joined the easing wave. Uganda, South Africa, Tanzania, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Botswana opted to hold rates steady. Rwanda stood out as the only country to tighten policy, raising its benchmark rate to 7.25 percent to contain near-term inflation pressures. Eurobond market reopens for African borrowers Improving global liquidity conditions are also reopening international debt markets for African governments. According to Bloomberg data, sub-Saharan African sovereign bond sales have reached $5.95 billion so far in 2026, the strongest start to the year since 2013. This compares with $1.8 billion raised during the same period in 2025. Kenya led issuance with a $2.25 billion dual-tranche Eurobond, the largest African bond deal so far this year. Ivory Coast raised $1.3 billion, while Benin issued $1 billion in January, followed by another $850 million including a sukuk. The Republic of Congo and Cameroon have also tapped international markets in recent weeks. Supporting the trend, the average risk premium on African sovereign bonds over US Treasuries has narrowed to 329 basis points, the lowest level in eight years, according to a JPMorgan index. Source: https://businessday.ng/africa/article/five-charts-showing-how-africas-biggest-markets-performed-in-february/